Alexandre Penetra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexandre Penetra's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-8.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.1M-12.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.1M-16.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.0M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2847 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1301
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.1M – €16.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-73 Elo); relative output up 324% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -23% to +86%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2847 | 93% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1301 | 1393 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 31 | 2598 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1300 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 25 | 1753 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1349 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | RB | 29 | 2517 | 82% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1391 | 1362 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 30 | 2565 | 84% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1369 | 1365 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 462 | 0 | 0 | 1370 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 984 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 204 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1276 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Kalidou Koulibaly Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €6.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €4.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Ridgeciano Haps Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Valentin Rosier Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Kara Mbodj Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 26 | €4.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Strahinja Erakovic Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Georgiy Dzhikiya Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €9.0M | €7.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2023 | Famalicão | AZ Alkmaar | €4.2M | €4.0M |
| 1 Aug 2021 | Famalicão U23 | Famalicão | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Aug 2020 | Benfica U19 | Famalicão U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.