Strahinja Erakovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Strahinja Erakovic's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-10.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-8.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 59.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €626k vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 637 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €8.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; relative output up 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +30% (IQR -16% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 637 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 2 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 12 | 637 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 1265 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1605 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1302 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2339 | 87% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1322 | 1491 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 566 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Red Star Belgrade | 2 | 205 | 0 | 0 | 1519 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 6 | 351 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1405 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 10 | 741 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajon Buchanan Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Andy Nájar Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 24 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Tomás Araújo Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €7.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| André Almeida Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Radosav Petrovic Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mikael Lustig Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ezequiel Schelotto Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €2.8M | €4.5M | rose |
| Joshua Brenet Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | Zenit S-Pb | Red Star | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 23 Jul 2023 | Red Star | Zenit S-Pb | €8.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Red Star U19 | Red Star | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Graficar | Red Star U19 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Red Star U19 | Graficar | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Red Star U17 | Red Star U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Red Star U15 | Red Star U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.