Lisandro Martínez

28 yrs · Centre-back (also DM) · Argentina
Manchester United · Premier League · Foot: left · Height: 175 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€40.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€16.5M – €41.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€13.9M – €39.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€14.7M – €24.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€27.5M – €22.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€16.5M – €41.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€13.9M – €39.0M
Projected value (24 months)€14.7M – €24.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€40.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Lisandro Martínez's performance-implied value at EUR 13.9M-39.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.5M-41.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.7M-24.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 18

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite92.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €22.0M vs market €40.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-59% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €50.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1231 (36% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
93 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1715
Opponent strength
1580
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€14.7M – €24.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; team strength up (+112 Elo); relative output down 81% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -56% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1231 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCB18123136%000.000.02158017151.30
2024/25Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCB20175451%210.150.12155616031.23
2023/24Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCB1164819%010.140.07158615941.14
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCB27211762%100.040.05158416991.23
2021/22Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB24191262%130.190.06132617490.60
2020/21Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB26174857%310.210.07132917220.56
2019/20Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieDM24203290%210.130.06135516800.62

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupArgentina218000—
2025/26Fa CupManchester United17900—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United8594011551
2024/25Fa CupManchester United112000—
2024/25Community ShieldManchester United190001893
2023/24Fa CupManchester United216200—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United190001789
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United10795001552
2022/23Fa CupManchester United313600—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam8720011593
2021/22Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam428100—
2021/22Johan Cruijff SchaalAjax Amsterdam186001612
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam6540001599
2020/21Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam536400—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam5298001628
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam6538001642
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam4360001500
2019/20Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam436000—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam2180001649
2019/20Johan Cruijff SchaalAjax Amsterdam159001642

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Premier League · 2023
26€25.0M€24.0Mflat
Andreas Christensen
Premier League · 2021
25€30.0M€40.0Mrose
Victor Lindelöf
Premier League · 2023
29€18.0M€8.0Mfell
Raphaël Varane
Premier League · 2023
30€35.0M€20.0Mfell
Ben Davies
Premier League · 2020
27€17.5M€20.0Mflat
Marcos Rojo
Premier League · 2018
28€18.0M€8.0Mfell
Joe Gomez
Premier League · 2024
27€28.0M€13.0Mfell
Phil Jones
Premier League · 2019
27€20.0M€5.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
27 Jul 2022AjaxMan Utd€57.4M€32.0M
1 Jul 2019DefensaAjax€7.0M€6.0M
1 Jul 2018Newell's IIDefensa€725k€2.0M
30 Jun 2018DefensaNewell's IIFree / loan€2.0M
11 Aug 2017Newell's IIDefensaFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Newell's U20Newell's IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Lisandro Martínez · MoneyballAI