Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aaron Wan-Bissaka's performance-implied value at EUR 11.7M-36.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.6M-15.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.2M-10.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.9M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2084 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1621
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.2M – €10.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -61% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | RB | 25 | 2084 | 61% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 1621 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | West Ham United | Premier League | RB | 36 | 3155 | 92% | 2 | 5 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1577 | 1520 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester United | Premier League | RB | 22 | 1782 | 52% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1581 | 1594 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester United | Premier League | RB | 19 | 1436 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1524 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester United | Premier League | RB | 20 | 1794 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1597 | 1609 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester United | Premier League | RB | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 1551 | 1741 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Manchester United | Premier League | RB | 35 | 3072 | 90% | 0 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1584 | 1720 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RB | 35 | 3135 | 92% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1550 | 1573 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RB | 7 | 628 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1613 | 1520 | 1.15 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 3 | 265 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 4 | 371 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 3 | 213 | 0 | 1 | 1592 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 6 | 412 | 0 | 0 | 1651 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 4 | 371 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 6 | 419 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 9 | 726 | 0 | 1 | 1596 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 6 | 473 | 0 | 1 | 1659 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 5 | 447 | 0 | 0 | 1563 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Coady Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €12.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Cédric Soares Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Florian Lejeune Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €8.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Vladimír Coufal Premier League · 2022 | 30 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Séamus Coleman Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €17.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Patrick van Aanholt Premier League · 2020 | 30 | €9.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Lucas Digne Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €25.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Angelo Ogbonna Premier League · 2019 | 31 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2024 | Man Utd | West Ham | €17.6M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Crystal Palace | Man Utd | €55.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Palace U23 | Crystal Palace | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Palace U18 | Palace U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.