Josh Campbell
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Josh Campbell's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.21x the positional average in the league (508 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 25.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €422k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 508 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.71
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1245
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €520k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -63% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 508 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 23 | 508 | 17% | 1 | 3 | 0.71 | 0.49 | 1245 | 1280 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 28 | 1674 | 56% | 4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 1273 | 1303 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 14 | 653 | 22% | 3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 1247 | 1200 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 31 | 2304 | 78% | 8 | 4 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 1323 | 1237 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 23 | 1606 | 54% | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 1306 | 1283 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 3 | 163 | 0 | 0 | 1381 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 2 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1391 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 3 | 213 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 5 | 391 | 2 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 4 | 238 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 3 | 96 | 0 | 1 | 1226 |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Arbroath FC | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Airdrieonians FC | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Tibbling Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €1.6M | €700k | fell |
| Cammy Devlin Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Ismael Diomande Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €550k | €150k | fell |
| Abdulkadir Parmak Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €250k | fell |
| Fousseni Diabaté Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.3M | €5.0M | rose |
| Igor Kyryukhantsev Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Stevie Mallan Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €850k | €350k | fell |
| Besar Halimi Superliga · 2019 | 25 | €600k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hibernian B | Hibernian FC | Unknown | €50k |
| 21 May 2021 | Edinburgh City | Hibernian B | Free / loan | €50k |
| 17 Sept 2020 | Hibernian B | Edinburgh City | Free / loan | €50k |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Arbroath | Hibernian B | Free / loan | €50k |
| 23 Aug 2019 | Hibernian B | Arbroath | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 May 2019 | Airdrieonians | Hibernian B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Hibernian B | Airdrieonians | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hibernian FC U20 | Hibernian B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hibernian FC U17 | Hibernian FC U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.