Nabil Touaizi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nabil Touaizi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2818 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €609k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2818 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1277
- Opponent strength
- 1332
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €596k – €1.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -29% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Alverca | Liga Portugal | RM | 33 | 2818 | 92% | 1 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 1332 | 1277 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 1499 | 1382 | 0.98 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmytro Myshnyov Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €650k | €600k | flat |
| Jeff Stans Eredivisie · 2015 | 25 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Julian Lelieveld Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Sergio Peña Eredivisie · 2021 | 26 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Stavros Tsoukalas Super League 1 · 2014 | 26 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Michael Chacón Eredivisie · 2019 | 25 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Navarone Foor Eredivisie · 2016 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.8M | rose |
| Tjaronn Chery Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €1.5M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2025 | Albacete | Alverca | Free / loan | €200k |
| 9 Aug 2024 | Atl. Madrileño | Albacete | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Sept 2023 | RCD Espanyol B | Atl. Madrileño | Unknown | €200k |
| 23 Sept 2020 | Man City U23 | RCD Espanyol B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Man City U18 | Man City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Valencia CF You | Man City Youth | €350k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.