Pedro Ganchas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Ganchas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.7M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1735 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1263
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €933k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -29% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1735 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 20 | 1735 | 88% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1263 | 1213 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 17 | 1530 | 77% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1332 | 1264 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CB | 5 | 266 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1437 | 1231 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CB | 2 | 142 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1491 | 1321 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 3 | 253 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 7 | 630 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1536 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuriy Gorshkov Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Gilles Dewaele Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mats Köhlert Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Okan Erdoğan Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €800k | €650k | flat |
| Nihad Mujakic Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Alexis Pérez Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Pepe Castaño Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Marcelo Alves Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | Paços Ferreira | Silkeborg IF | €400k | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Benfica B | Paços Ferreira | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Sacavenense | Benfica U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Jan 2018 | Benfica U19 | Sacavenense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jul 2017 | Sacavenense U19 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.