
Daniel Muñoz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daniel Muñoz's performance-implied value at EUR 15.1M-36.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.4M-23.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.4M-12.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2404 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €17.1M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2404 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1603
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.4M – €12.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -65% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RM | 29 | 2404 | 70% | 4 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 1603 | 1589 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RM | 37 | 3232 | 95% | 4 | 6 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1556 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 17 | 1444 | 53% | 5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 1372 | 1459 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RM | 16 | 1440 | 42% | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 1584 | 1562 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 30 | 2615 | 85% | 7 | 7 | 0.48 | 0.22 | 1301 | 1495 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 26 | 1913 | 63% | 2 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.19 | 1341 | 1356 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 34 | 2840 | 93% | 0 | 5 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 1356 | 1414 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Colombia | 3 | 183 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Crystal Palace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1251 |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 6 | 537 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 1466 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | 1404 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1451 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 3 | 242 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1554 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdoulaye Doucouré Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €25.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Gylfi Sigurdsson Premier League · 2020 | 31 | €22.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Tomáš Souček Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Mikel Rico Laliga · 2014 | 30 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Steven Nzonzi Laliga · 2018 | 30 | €30.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Jefferson Lerma Premier League · 2024 | 30 | €20.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Leandro Trossard Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €35.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Matt Doherty Premier League · 2020 | 28 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2024 | Genk | Crystal Palace | €8.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Atl. Nacional | Genk | €4.5M | €1.4M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rionegro Águila | Atl. Nacional | Unknown | €950k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.