Daniel Muñoz

30 yrs · Right-back (also CB, RM) · Colombia
Crystal Palace · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€22.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€12.4M – €23.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€15.1M – €36.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€6.4M – €12.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€8.0M – €24.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€12.4M – €23.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€15.1M – €36.6M
Projected value (24 months)€6.4M – €12.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€22.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Daniel Muñoz's performance-implied value at EUR 15.1M-36.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.4M-23.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.4M-12.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2404 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 1

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite95.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €17.1M vs market €22.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-64% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €27.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2404 (70% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.26
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.22
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
95 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1589
Opponent strength
1603
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€6.4M – €12.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -65% to -37%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Crystal PalacePremier LeagueRM29240470%430.260.22160315891.30
2024/25Crystal PalacePremier LeagueRM37323295%460.280.26155616201.23
2023/24KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueRB17144453%510.370.18137214590.63
2023/24Crystal PalacePremier LeagueRM16144042%040.250.32158415621.14
2022/23KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueRB30261585%770.480.22130114950.58
2021/22KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueRB26191363%240.280.19134113560.49
2020/21KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueCB34284093%050.160.10135614140.55

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupColombia318320—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingCrystal Palace2180001251
2025/26Community ShieldCrystal Palace190001800
2024/25Fa CupCrystal Palace653721—
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingKRC Genk2210011466
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingKRC Genk2210101404
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingKRC Genk2180001451
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueKRC Genk3242001586
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingKRC Genk2180001554

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Abdoulaye Doucouré
Premier League · 2021
28€25.0M€12.0Mfell
Gylfi Sigurdsson
Premier League · 2020
31€22.5M€3.0Mfell
Tomáš Souček
Premier League · 2023
28€35.0M€18.0Mfell
Mikel Rico
Laliga · 2014
30€8.0M€5.0Mfell
Steven Nzonzi
Laliga · 2018
30€30.0M€11.0Mfell
Jefferson Lerma
Premier League · 2024
30€20.0M€6.0Mfell
Leandro Trossard
Premier League · 2023
29€35.0M€22.0Mfell
Matt Doherty
Premier League · 2020
28€16.0M€12.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jan 2024GenkCrystal Palace€8.0M€10.0M
1 Jul 2020Atl. NacionalGenk€4.5M€1.4M
1 Jul 2019Rionegro ÁguilaAtl. NacionalUnknown€950k

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.