Wilson Isidor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wilson Isidor's performance-implied value at EUR 5.6M-21.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.5M-27.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.0M-23.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.46x the positional average in the league (1159 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €20.4M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1159 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.74
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1612
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.0M – €23.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -40% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1159 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | ST | 32 | 1159 | 34% | 6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.74 | 1612 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | ST | 3 | 60 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.50 | 0.41 | 1338 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | ST | 14 | 418 | 15% | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 1310 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2023/24 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | LW | 4 | 145 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.41 | 1298 | 1416 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | ST | 20 | 1165 | 43% | 8 | 3 | 0.85 | 0.63 | 1315 | 1399 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | LW | 11 | 891 | 33% | 7 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.63 | 1360 | 1344 | 0.52 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 4 | 47 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1366 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2018/19 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 1 | 41 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.04 | 1815 | 1396 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Haiti | 3 | 188 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 3 | 101 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 54 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 252 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 2 | 106 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 4 | 274 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 2 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 1336 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 1 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lys Mousset Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €9.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ivan Cavaleiro Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Andros Townsend Premier League · 2016 | 25 | €9.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Luis Sinisterra Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €17.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Manu Vallejo Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €7.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Danny Ings Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Harry Wilson Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2025 | Zenit S-Pb | Sunderland | €6.0M | €4.0M |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Sunderland | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Zenit S-Pb | Sunderland | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Loko Moscow | Zenit S-Pb | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Zenit S-Pb | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 9 Sept 2023 | Loko Moscow | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 22 Jan 2022 | Monaco | Loko Moscow | €3.5M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Bastia-Borgo | Monaco | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 26 Aug 2020 | Monaco | Bastia-Borgo | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Stade Lavallois | Monaco | Free / loan | €150k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Monaco | Stade Lavallois | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Monaco B | Monaco | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rennes U19 | Monaco B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rennes U17 | Rennes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Rennes Jugend | Rennes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.