Víctor Chust
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Víctor Chust's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-8.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.1M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2165 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €4.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -53% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2165 | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1500 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Cádiz CF | Laliga | CB | 22 | 1869 | 55% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1513 | 1377 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Cádiz CF | Laliga | CB | 14 | 964 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1479 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Cádiz CF | Laliga | CB | 25 | 1829 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1523 | 1439 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CB | 2 | 94 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1495 | 1788 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 2 | 136 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Cádiz CF | 2 | 181 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Cádiz CF | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquín Fernández Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Javi Sánchez Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Toni Sunjic Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Romain Danzé Ligue 1 · 2013 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Omar Alderete Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €5.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Mads Pedersen Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Rafael Tolói Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €4.5M | €11.0M | rose |
| Benedikt Gimber Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €2.8M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Elche CF | Cádiz CF | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Cádiz CF | Elche CF | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Real Madrid | Cádiz CF | €1.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Cádiz CF | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 10 Aug 2021 | Real Madrid | Cádiz CF | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Valencia CF You | Real Madrid U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.