Montassar Talbi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Montassar Talbi's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-7.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-9.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.1M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2610 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €9.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -50% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2610 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1469 | 1420 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2205 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1467 | 1335 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1451 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2250 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1354 | 1227 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CB | 21 | 1801 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1276 | 1174 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CB | 27 | 2430 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1332 | 1209 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1406 | 1324 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Tunisia | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamil Glik Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €10.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Gabriel Paletta Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Unai Núñez Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Simon Kjær Ligue 1 · 2015 | 26 | €8.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Gian Marco Ferrari Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €7.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Bakaye Dibassy Ligue 1 · 2018 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nico Elvedi Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Pedro Mendes Ligue 1 · 2019 | 29 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2022 | Rubin Kazan | FC Lorient | €1.5M | €1.2M |
| 9 Aug 2021 | Benevento | Rubin Kazan | €900k | €950k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | C. Rizespor | Benevento | Free / loan | €950k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Esperance | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Sept 2016 | Esperance U19 | Esperance | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.