David Carmo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Carmo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-6.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-5.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1787 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €5.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-231 Elo); league level up (+252 Elo); relative output up 120% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -66% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1787 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | CB | 22 | 1787 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1499 | 1294 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 20 | 1437 | 61% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1274 | 1525 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 7 | 610 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1337 | 1628 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 4 | 360 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1330 | 1490 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 9 | 634 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1429 | 1744 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 12 | 994 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1361 | 1514 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 12 | 1000 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1337 | 1493 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 18 | 1474 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1375 | 1522 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Angola | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 8 | 622 | 0 | 0 | 1503 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1565 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1590 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 5 | 508 | 1 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 5 | 405 | 0 | 0 | 1484 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1571 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkadiusz Reca Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Ciaran Clark Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €4.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Mihailo Ristic Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Koray Günter Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €3.5M | €700k | fell |
| Maximiliano Caufriez Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Sebastiano Luperto Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Fali Candé Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Real Oviedo | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Nott'm Forest | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Olympiacos | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 26 Aug 2024 | Nott'm Forest | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Porto | Nott'm Forest | €11.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Olympiacos | Porto | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Porto | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 5 Jul 2022 | Braga | Porto | €20.3M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Braga B | Braga | Unknown | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Braga U19 | Braga B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Braga U17 | Braga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sanjoanense S17 | Braga U17 | €950k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Anadia Sub-15 | Sanjoanense S17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Benfica U15 | Anadia Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | CB Estarreja F. | Benfica Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Beira-Mar Yth. | CB Estarreja F. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.