Pavel Sulc
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pavel Sulc's performance-implied value at EUR 5.8M-29.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.4M-26.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.6M-29.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.16x the positional average in the league (1569 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.3M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1569 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.80
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 21)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1430
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.6M – €29.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -54% to +66%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1569 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | AM | 27 | 1569 | 51% | 11 | 3 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 1430 | 1554 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 8 | 477 | 1 | 3 | 1403 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Czech Republic | 3 | 189 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Viktoria Plzen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1379 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Viktoria Plzen | 12 | 1080 | 4 | 3 | 1541 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Viktoria Plzen | 4 | 360 | 0 | 2 | 1294 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Sanches Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €28.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Brahim Díaz Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €20.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Timothy Castagne Serie A · 2019 | 24 | €18.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Marcelo Brozović Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Blerim Dzemaili Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Lovro Majer Ligue 1 · 2023 | 25 | €20.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Yann M'Vila Premier Liga · 2014 | 24 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Denis Zakaria Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €27.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2025 | Viktoria Plzeň | Lyon | €7.5M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Jablonec | Viktoria Plzeň | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 14 Jul 2022 | Viktoria Plzeň | Jablonec | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Dec 2020 | C. Budejovice | Viktoria Plzeň | Free / loan | €500k |
| 10 Aug 2020 | Viktoria Plzeň | C. Budejovice | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | C. Budejovice | Viktoria Plzeň | Free / loan | €350k |
| 26 Jan 2020 | Viktoria Plzeň | C. Budejovice | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Vikt. Plzen B | Viktoria Plzeň | Unknown | €400k |
| 31 Dec 2019 | SFC Opava | Vikt. Plzen B | Free / loan | €400k |
| 3 Jul 2019 | Vikt. Plzen B | SFC Opava | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Vikt. Plzen U19 | Vikt. Plzen B | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Jihlava | Vikt. Plzen U19 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Vikt. Plzen U19 | Jihlava | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Vikt. Plzen U17 | Vikt. Plzen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Vik. Plzen Yth. | Vikt. Plzen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Aug 2011 | Karlovy Vary Yth | Vik. Plzen Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Apr 2009 | Touzim Yth. | Karlovy Vary Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.