Maksim Saveljev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksim Saveljev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (1118 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €562k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1118 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1218
- Opponent strength
- 1350
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €373k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; relative output up 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -27% to +62%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1118 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | ST | 22 | 1118 | 41% | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.50 | 1350 | 1218 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | ST | 12 | 685 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1291 | 1202 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 5 | 237 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pape Habib Guèye Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €600k | €1.2M | rose |
| Vitaliy Balashov Premier Liga · 2015 | 24 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Søren Tengstedt Superliga · 2024 | 24 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Alessandro Cerigioni Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Jizz Hornkamp Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €650k | €1.0M | rose |
| William Liga Portugal · 2017 | 26 | €400k | €750k | rose |
| Piotr Parzyszek Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €750k | €800k | flat |
| Billal Messaoudi Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €600k | €700k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb 2025 | Enisey | Orenburg | €260k | €400k |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Chertanovo | Enisey | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Akad Chertanovo | Chertanovo | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Chertanovo 2 | Akad Chertanovo | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Akad Chertanovo | Chertanovo 2 | Unknown | €100k |
| 21 Sept 2017 | Akademia Rubin | Akad Chertanovo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 9 Aug 2016 | Dynamo U17 | Akademia Rubin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Oct 2015 | DYuSSh Saratov | Dynamo U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.