Jizz Hornkamp
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jizz Hornkamp's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.53x the positional average in the league (1344 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1344 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.74
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.87
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1117
- Opponent strength
- 1330
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €914k – €2.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-90 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -50% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1344 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | ST | 14 | 1115 | 36% | 10 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 1330 | 1060 | 0.43 |
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | ST | 8 | 229 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1300 | 1393 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | ST | 26 | 1585 | 52% | 8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 1287 | 1207 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | ST | 17 | 1295 | 42% | 10 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.87 | 1386 | 1149 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | ST | 13 | 1077 | 35% | 4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 1347 | 1237 | 0.60 |
| 2018/19 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RB | 18 | 742 | 24% | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1348 | 1296 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 63 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 48 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 4 | 249 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 1 | 21 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torgeir Börven Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Benhur Keser Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Lazar Markovic Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Mame Thiam Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Carlos Mané Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Emil Hansson Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Ayoub El Kaabi Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Emrah Başsan Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.4M | €1.1M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2026 | Heracles Almelo | AZ Alkmaar | €4.5M | €1.5M |
| 3 Jul 2023 | Willem II | Heracles Almelo | Unknown | €650k |
| 24 Jan 2022 | FC Den Bosch | Willem II | €200k | €400k |
| 22 Jul 2019 | Heerenveen | FC Den Bosch | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Heerenveen U21 | Heerenveen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Heerenveen U19 | Heerenveen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AZ U17 | Heerenveen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax Youth | AZ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.