Alexander Jensen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexander Jensen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €873k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1689 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1119
- Opponent strength
- 1228
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €610k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo); relative output down 66% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -50% to +18%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1689 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 25 | 1689 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1228 | 1119 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 11 | 918 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 1246 | 1186 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1374 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 5 | 507 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Gucek Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Murat Paluli Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Atakan Çankaya Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Erdi Dikmen Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Roman Vantukh Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Pierre-Yves Polomat Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €900k | €200k | fell |
| Rocky Bushiri Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €1.0M | rose |
| Adil Demirbağ Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €1.2M | €2.3M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2025 | Brommapojkarna | Aberdeen FC | €650k | €1.2M |
| 25 Jan 2023 | FC Fredericia | Brommapojkarna | Unknown | €300k |
| 17 Sept 2020 | Vejle BK U19 | FC Fredericia | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vejle BK Youth | Vejle BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FCM Youth | Vejle BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.