Adil Demirbağ
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adil Demirbağ's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 78
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2088 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1230
- Opponent strength
- 1282
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -64% (IQR -76% to -43%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 24 | 2088 | 68% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 1282 | 1230 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 33 | 2967 | 92% | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1280 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 23 | 1965 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1329 | 1284 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 27 | 2394 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1291 | 1355 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 30 | 1621 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1256 | 1330 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 23 | 1252 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1296 | 1225 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Konyaspor | 4 | 228 | 0 | 0 | 1406 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pawel Bochniewicz Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €3.0M | €700k | fell |
| Dimitrios Goutas Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Glenn Bijl Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Steven Caulker Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €4.4M | €900k | fell |
| Onur Bulut Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €3.5M | €850k | fell |
| Jure Balkovec Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €2.4M | €2.2M | flat |
| Florent Hadergjonaj Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €3.1M | €1.5M | fell |
| Majid Hosseini Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sept 2020 | Adana Demirspor | Konyaspor | €200k | €700k |
| 29 Nov 2018 | Karagümrük | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Adana Demirspor | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €250k |
| 20 Jul 2017 | Bucaspor | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 23 Jan 2015 | Bucaspor U21 | Bucaspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Bucaspor Yth | Bucaspor U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 13 Sept 2013 | Sariyer Yth | Bucaspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Feb 2012 | Besiktas Yth | Sariyer Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Oct 2011 | Elazig DSI Jgd | Besiktas Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.