
Yunus Musah
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yunus Musah's performance-implied value at EUR 6.9M-25.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.6M-17.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.1M-22.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (651 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 73.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.7M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 651 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1585
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.1M – €22.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -53% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 651 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CM | 19 | 561 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 1484 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | RM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1355 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | CM | 29 | 1574 | 46% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1499 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Milan | Serie A | CM | 30 | 1470 | 43% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1490 | 1625 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2121 | 62% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 1491 | 1444 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 28 | 1236 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 1566 | 1487 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 7 | 238 | 0 | 1 | 1703 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 26 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 7 | 415 | 0 | 0 | 1616 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 2 | 113 | 0 | 1 | 1791 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 5 | 352 | 0 | 0 | 1691 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 4 | 329 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 144 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 1823 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 7 | 392 | 2 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amadou Diawara Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €14.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Eljif Elmas Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Jens Cajuste Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Carles Pérez Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Benjamin Henrichs Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Tommaso Pobega Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Renato Sanches Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €15.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Atalanta | AC Milan | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | AC Milan | Atalanta | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 4 Aug 2023 | Valencia | AC Milan | €21.2M | €18.0M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €200k |
| 11 Aug 2019 | Arsenal U18 | Valencia B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Arsenal Youth | Arsenal U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Giorgione Jun. | Arsenal Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.