Yunus Musah

23 yrs · Central midfielder (also RM) · United States
AC Milan · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€14.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€9.6M – €17.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€6.9M – €25.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€5.1M – €22.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€10.5M – €15.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€9.6M – €17.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€6.9M – €25.2M
Projected value (24 months)€5.1M – €22.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€14.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Yunus Musah's performance-implied value at EUR 6.9M-25.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.6M-17.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.1M-22.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (651 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average73.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.6 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €12.7M vs market €14.0M
Expected appreciationLow-17% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
651 (19% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.14
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
73 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1585
Opponent strength
1484
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€5.1M – €22.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -53% to -18%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 651 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Atalanta BCSerie ACM1956116%100.160.14148415880.93
2025/26AC MilanSerie ARM1903%000.000.15135515700.93
2024/25AC MilanSerie ACM29157446%020.110.12149916250.99
2023/24AC MilanSerie ACM30147043%020.120.12149016250.98
2022/23Valencia CFLaligaCM33212162%020.080.14149114440.98
2021/22Valencia CFLaligaCM28123636%100.070.16156614871.05

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC7238011703
2025/26Italy CupAtalanta BC12610—
2025/26Italy CupAC Milan12400—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAC Milan7415001616
2024/25Italy CupAC Milan213500—
2024/25Supercoppa ItalianaAC Milan2113011791
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueAC Milan5352001691
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAC Milan4329001593
2023/24Italy CupAC Milan19000—
2022/23Copa Del ReyValencia CF314400—
2022/23SupercopaValencia CF195001823
2021/22Copa Del ReyValencia CF739221—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Amadou Diawara
Serie A · 2021
24€14.0M€2.2Mfell
Eljif Elmas
Serie A · 2024
25€20.0M€13.0Mfell
Jens Cajuste
Serie A · 2024
25€10.0M€8.0Mfell
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Serie A · 2022
25€10.0M€9.0Mflat
Carles Pérez
Serie A · 2021
23€8.0M€5.0Mfell
Benjamin Henrichs
Bundesliga · 2021
24€12.0M€15.0Mrose
Tommaso Pobega
Serie A · 2023
24€14.0M€9.0Mfell
Renato Sanches
Ligue 1 · 2023
26€15.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026AtalantaAC MilanFree / loan€14.0M
1 Sept 2025AC MilanAtalantaFree / loan€20.0M
4 Aug 2023ValenciaAC Milan€21.2M€18.0M
1 Aug 2020Valencia BValenciaUnknown€200k
11 Aug 2019Arsenal U18Valencia BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Arsenal YouthArsenal U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Giorgione Jun.Arsenal YouthUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.