Will Ferry
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Will Ferry's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (2533 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €418k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2533 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1178
- Opponent strength
- 1210
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €570k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -53% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 29 | 2533 | 85% | 2 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 1210 | 1177 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 30 | 2696 | 91% | 0 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1236 | 1193 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dundee United FC | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | 1332 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vadym Vitenchuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Eder González Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Radosław Murawski Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €1.4M | €850k | fell |
| Lasha Parunashvili Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Zisis Karachalios Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Ryan Strain Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 26 | €650k | €600k | flat |
| Iver Fossum Superliga · 2023 | 27 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Liam Craig Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €750k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Cheltenham | Dundee United | Free / loan | €275k |
| 9 Aug 2022 | Southampton U21 | Cheltenham | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2022 | Crawley Town | Southampt. U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Aug 2021 | Southampt. U23 | Crawley Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Southampton U18 | Southampt. U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Jul 2017 | Bury FC U18 | Southampton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.