Fabian Rieder
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabian Rieder's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-12.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.9M-17.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-20.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (2485 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.8M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2485 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1426
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €20.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 53 pts; changed club; team strength down (-105 Elo); role change RW -> AM; relative output up 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -54% to -25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 2351 | 77% | 6 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 1491 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | AM | 3 | 134 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1437 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RW | 21 | 867 | 28% | 1 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.34 | 1479 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | AM | 15 | 355 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 1495 | 1507 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Switzerland | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 248 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 239 | 1 | 3 | 1585 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | BSC Young Boys | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 1505 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 152 | 2 | 1 | 1483 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Colpani Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €18.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Nikola Vlašić Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €17.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Riccardo Saponara Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €15.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Fernando Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Ondrej Duda Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €17.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Răzvan Marin Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Wylan Cyprien Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Óscar Mingueza Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Stade Rennais | Augsburg | €7.0M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Stuttgart | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Stade Rennais | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Young Boys | Stade Rennais | €15.0M | €15.0M |
| 14 Jan 2021 | BSC YB U21 | Young Boys | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | BSC YB U18 | BSC YB U21 | Unknown | €225k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | BSC YB U16 | BSC YB U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Solothurn Yth. | BSC YB U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.