Nino
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nino's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-14.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.1M-9.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-8.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.2M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2389 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1324
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €8.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -47% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2389 | 88% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1324 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 30 | 2569 | 95% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 1286 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 12 | 1043 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1320 | 1491 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 335 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 411 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 315 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Marcelo Super Lig · 2017 | 30 | €6.5M | €7.0M | flat |
| Connor Goldson Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 30 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ismaily Premier Liga · 2019 | 29 | €19.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Sebastián Coates Liga Portugal · 2018 | 28 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Simon Deli Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 29 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Christopher Jullien Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 27 | €5.2M | €4.5M | flat |
| Douglas Santos Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €11.0M | €16.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2024 | Fluminense | Zenit S-Pb | €5.0M | €11.0M |
| 13 Jan 2020 | Criciúma | Fluminense | €1.0M | €2.5M |
| 31 Dec 2019 | Fluminense | Criciúma | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 25 Feb 2019 | Criciúma | Fluminense | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Criciúma U20 | Criciúma | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.