Ayoub El Kaabi

The model rates Ayoub El Kaabi's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-4.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1682 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1682 (72% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.96

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.44

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

78 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.42 (rank 16)

Team strength (Elo)

1550

Opponent strength

1218

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€910k – €2.4M

Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -67% to -42%).

• ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Limited sample: 1682 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

19 (ATT)

Relative output kept

99%–112%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

47%

Confidence

Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.