Anastasios Douvikas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Anastasios Douvikas's performance-implied value at EUR 10.8M-36.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.8M-32.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.3M-27.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.09x the positional average in the league (2278 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €26.0M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2278 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.3M – €27.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; changed club; team strength up (+120 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -38% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | ST | 38 | 2278 | 67% | 14 | 2 | 0.63 | 0.55 | 1486 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 20 | 692 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.59 | 1511 | 1476 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Como 1907 | Serie A | ST | 13 | 578 | 17% | 2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 1437 | 1461 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 32 | 886 | 26% | 7 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 1455 | 1449 | 1.00 |
| 2023/24 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 1491 | 1354 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 32 | 2141 | 70% | 19 | 4 | 0.97 | 0.78 | 1343 | 1392 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 34 | 2382 | 78% | 9 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 1350 | 1358 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | ST | 26 | 2304 | 98% | 10 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.66 | 1274 | 1194 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | ST | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1223 | 1245 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | ST | 18 | 259 | 10% | 0 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 1345 | 1257 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | ST | 20 | 541 | 20% | 2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.68 | 1306 | 1332 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 6 | 251 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 90 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 448 | 6 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 4 | 390 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 1 | 19 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 4 | 360 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 7 | 375 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1334 |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 172 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| André Schürrle Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Nico González Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €35.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Emmanuel Emenike Super Lig · 2014 | 27 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Moussa Dembélé Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Gervinho Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Chicharito Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Celta de Vigo | Como | €14.0M | €5.0M |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Utrecht | Celta de Vigo | €12.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Volos NFC | Utrecht | €1.2M | €1.2M |
| 21 Aug 2020 | Asteras Tripoli | Volos NFC | €600k | €250k |
| 21 Jul 2017 | A. Tripolis U20 | Asteras Tripoli | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.