Adrià Pedrosa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adrià Pedrosa's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-4.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1084 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1516
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €988k – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; changed club; relative output up 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -43% to +48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1084 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | LB | 26 | 1079 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 1516 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2025/26 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LB | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1415 | 1397 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LB | 31 | 2304 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1506 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LB | 31 | 1749 | 51% | 1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 1495 | 1475 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 7 | 226 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1518 | 1382 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 31 | 2723 | 80% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1540 | 1416 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 20 | 1082 | 32% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1511 | 1432 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 4 | 308 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 5 | 413 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Sevilla FC | 4 | 329 | 0 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 210 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 5 | 338 | 1 | 1 | 1533 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 270 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 1316 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mouctar Diakhaby Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Kévin Rodrigues Laliga · 2021 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.3M | fell |
| Thomas Phibel Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Niklas Stark Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €5.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| David Abraham Bundesliga · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| William Rémy Ligue 1 · 2017 | 26 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Dimitrios Siovas Laliga · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Dmitriy Yatchenko Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Elche CF | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Sevilla FC | Elche CF | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Espanyol | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | RCD Espanyol B | Espanyol | Unknown | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Espanyol U19 | RCD Espanyol B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Espanyol U18 | Espanyol U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | EF Gava | Espanyol U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.