
Chris Richards
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Chris Richards's performance-implied value at EUR 22.3M-39.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.5M-35.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.3M-29.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €17.9M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2826 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1586
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.3M – €29.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -55% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 33 | 2826 | 83% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1586 | 1589 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 24 | 1925 | 56% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1569 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 26 | 2091 | 61% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1581 | 1562 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 9 | 443 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1631 | 1536 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 19 | 1300 | 42% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1548 | 1479 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1415 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 947 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1539 | 1525 | 1.06 |
| 2020/21 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 3 | 88 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 1.02 | 0.06 | 1477 | 1898 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1481 | 1892 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | United States | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1250 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 3 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2020/21 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1687 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Çağlar Söyüncü Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €40.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Nélson Semedo Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Mason Holgate Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €20.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Vitaliy Mykolenko Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Cristian Romero Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €60.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Marc Bartra Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €22.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Virgil van Dijk Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €50.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Timothy Castagne Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €28.0M | €17.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2022 | Bayern Munich | Crystal Palace | €12.0M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Hoffenheim | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Bayern Munich | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Hoffenheim | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Bayern Munich | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Bayern II | Bayern Munich | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Bayern U19 | FC Bayern II | Unknown | €50k |
| 24 Jan 2019 | Dallas | FC Bayern U19 | €5.3M | €50k |
| 31 Dec 2018 | FC Bayern U19 | Dallas | Free / loan | €50k |
| 9 Jul 2018 | Dallas | FC Bayern U19 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 12 Apr 2018 | Dallas Academy | Dallas | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Texans SC | Dallas Academy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Alabama FC | Texans SC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.