Chris Richards

26 yrs · Centre-back · United States
Crystal Palace · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 189 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€28.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€13.5M – €35.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€22.3M – €39.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€15.3M – €29.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€13.2M – €26.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€13.5M – €35.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€22.3M – €39.6M
Projected value (24 months)€15.3M – €29.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€28.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Chris Richards's performance-implied value at EUR 22.3M-39.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.5M-35.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.3M-29.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 59

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite95.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €17.9M vs market €28.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €28.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2826 (83% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
96 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1589
Opponent strength
1586
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€15.3M – €29.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; relative output down 42% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -55% to -10%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Crystal PalacePremier LeagueCB33282683%100.030.03158615891.30
2024/25Crystal PalacePremier LeagueCB24192556%100.050.06156916201.23
2023/24Crystal PalacePremier LeagueCB26209161%110.090.08158115621.14
2022/23Crystal PalacePremier LeagueCB944313%000.000.06163115361.23
2021/22TSG 1899 HoffenheimBundesligaCB19130042%110.140.10154814791.05
2021/22Bayern MunichBundesligaCB120%000.000.03141518471.05
2020/21TSG 1899 HoffenheimBundesligaCB1194731%010.100.08153915251.06
2020/21Bayern MunichBundesligaCB3883%011.020.06147718981.06
2019/20Bayern MunichBundesligaCB160%000.000.03148118921.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupUnited States218000—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingCrystal Palace190001250
2025/26Fa CupCrystal Palace19000—
2025/26Community ShieldCrystal Palace190001800
2024/25Fa CupCrystal Palace654001—
2023/24Fa CupCrystal Palace218000—
2021/22Dfb PokalTSG 1899 Hoffenheim218000—
2021/22Dfb PokalBayern Munich14500—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueTSG 1899 Hoffenheim2180001510
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich3128001638
2020/21Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich114001687

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Çağlar Söyüncü
Premier League · 2022
26€40.0M€10.0Mfell
Nélson Semedo
Premier League · 2021
28€28.0M€15.0Mfell
Mason Holgate
Premier League · 2021
25€20.0M€9.0Mfell
Vitaliy Mykolenko
Premier League · 2023
24€25.0M€28.0Mflat
Cristian Romero
Premier League · 2023
25€60.0M€50.0Mflat
Marc Bartra
Laliga · 2019
28€22.0M€10.0Mfell
Virgil van Dijk
Premier League · 2018
27€50.0M€80.0Mrose
Timothy Castagne
Premier League · 2022
27€28.0M€17.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
27 Jul 2022Bayern MunichCrystal Palace€12.0M€7.5M
30 Jun 2022HoffenheimBayern MunichFree / loan€7.5M
31 Aug 2021Bayern MunichHoffenheimFree / loan€7.5M
30 Jun 2021HoffenheimBayern MunichFree / loan€7.5M
1 Feb 2021Bayern MunichHoffenheimFree / loan€5.0M
1 Jul 2020FC Bayern IIBayern MunichUnknown€1.8M
1 Jul 2019FC Bayern U19FC Bayern IIUnknown€50k
24 Jan 2019DallasFC Bayern U19€5.3M€50k
31 Dec 2018FC Bayern U19DallasFree / loan€50k
9 Jul 2018DallasFC Bayern U19Free / loan€50k
12 Apr 2018Dallas AcademyDallasUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Texans SCDallas AcademyFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Alabama FCTexans SCFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.