Nicolò Rovella

The model rates Nicolò Rovella's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-37.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.8M-28.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.4M-24.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (512 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

512 (15% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.18

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.14

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

76 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.93 (rank 4)

Team strength (Elo)

1522

Opponent strength

1494

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Moderate

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€9.4M – €24.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 65 pts; team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output up 84% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -60% to +24%).

• ▲Small sample: 512 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.