Andrei Rațiu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andrei Rațiu's performance-implied value at EUR 4.9M-10.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.7M-18.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.1M-19.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €15.2M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2804 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1503
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.1M – €19.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo); relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -55% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RB | 35 | 2804 | 82% | 0 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1503 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RB | 35 | 3067 | 90% | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 1517 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RB | 12 | 628 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1579 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2020/21 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | RW | 10 | 521 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1386 | 1142 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 139 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1289 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 390 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | ADO Den Haag | 2 | 171 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1563 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Mancini Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Daniel Muñoz Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 28 | €18.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| David García Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Martin Hinteregger Bundesliga · 2019 | 27 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Aurélien Chedjou Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mario Gaspar Laliga · 2018 | 28 | €18.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Dakonam Djené Laliga · 2021 | 30 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Robin Koch Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2023 | SD Huesca | Rayo Vallecano | €5.5M | €1.5M |
| 4 Aug 2021 | Villarreal | SD Huesca | €5.0M | €300k |
| 29 Jan 2021 | Villarreal CF B | Villarreal | Unknown | €300k |
| 28 Jan 2021 | ADO Den Haag | Villarreal CF B | Free / loan | €300k |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Villarreal CF B | ADO Den Haag | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Villarreal C | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Villarreal U19 | FC Villarreal C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Villarreal Yth. | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.