Emirhan Topçu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emirhan Topçu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.8M-8.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-8.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.1M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1742 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1350
- Opponent strength
- 1250
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €8.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -49% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1742 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 21 | 1742 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1250 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 28 | 1821 | 56% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1279 | 1340 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2793 | 82% | 1 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1317 | 1219 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CB | 12 | 842 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1194 | 1179 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1297 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1432 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 6 | 437 | 0 | 1 | 1551 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1377 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailson Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Francisco Ortega Super League 1 · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Marcelo Saracchi Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €5.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Harold Moukoudi Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Nazım Sangaré Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Oleksandr Tymchyk Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Oleksandr Syrota Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Chidozie Awaziem Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2024 | C. Rizespor | Besiktas | €3.4M | €4.3M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Menemenspor | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €300k |
| 20 Jan 2021 | C. Rizespor | Menemenspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Celik Zenica | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Feb 2020 | C. Rizespor | Celik Zenica | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | C. Rizespor U21 | C. Rizespor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Apr 2017 | C. Rizespor Yth | C. Rizespor U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.