Terem Moffi

27 yrs · Striker · Nigeria
OGC Nice · Ligue 1 · Foot: left · Height: 188 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.3M – €8.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.8M – €4.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.4M – €8.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€6.4M – €1.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.3M – €8.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.8M – €4.5M
Projected value (24 months)€2.4M – €8.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Terem Moffi's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-4.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-8.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (729 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage47.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €4.4M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-48% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
729 (24% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.49
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.41
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
48 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1436
Opponent strength
1432
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.4M – €8.7M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -58% to -4%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 729 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26OGC NiceLigue 1ST1048916%200.370.41143213580.88
2025/26FC PortoLiga PortugalST92408%110.750.34133515940.58
2024/25OGC NiceLigue 1ST5532%101.700.52145315210.88
2023/24OGC NiceLigue 1ST30196164%1120.600.51147615110.87
2022/23FC LorientLigue 1ST18139641%1200.770.77145713960.82
2022/23OGC NiceLigue 1ST16133439%630.610.46142915190.82
2021/22FC LorientLigue 1ST37273580%840.390.52142913350.86
2020/21FC LorientLigue 1ST32208961%1430.730.82144313440.75
2020/21KV KortrijkJupiler Pro LeagueST21525%100.590.49131712600.55
2019/20KV KortrijkJupiler Pro LeagueST742816%400.840.68138513420.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueFC Porto4274101588
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingOGC Nice2171001638
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueOGC Nice3126101559
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Riteriai2180001376

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Takumi Minamino
Ligue 1 · 2023
28€6.0M€15.0Mrose
Bertrand Traoré
Super Lig · 2023
28€12.0M€8.0Mfell
Lacina Traore
Ligue 1 · 2016
26€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Marko Pjaca
Serie A · 2019
24€10.0M€4.0Mfell
Arbër Zeneli
Ligue 1 · 2023
28€3.5M€1.5Mfell
Nemanja Tomic
Super Lig · 2014
26€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Rachid Ghezzal
Serie A · 2020
28€5.5M€8.5Mrose
Robert Beric
Ligue 1 · 2016
25€5.5M€4.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026PortoNiceFree / loan€8.0M
30 Jan 2026NicePortoFree / loan€10.0M
1 Jul 2023FC LorientNice€22.5M€20.0M
30 Jun 2023NiceFC LorientFree / loan€20.0M
31 Jan 2023FC LorientNiceFree / loan€15.0M
1 Oct 2020KV KortrijkFC Lorient€8.0M€3.0M
8 Jan 2020RiteriaiKV Kortrijk€1.4M€350k
1 Feb 2019Without ClubRiteriaiUnknown€75k
1 Jan 2018Kauno ZalgirisWithout ClubUnknownData unavailable
1 Aug 2017Buckswood FAKauno ZalgirisFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.