Daniel Maldini
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daniel Maldini's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-11.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.0M-12.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-15.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.80x the positional average in the league (952 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.0M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 952 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1540
- Opponent strength
- 1514
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €15.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; changed club; team strength up (+201 Elo); role change AM -> ST; relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -46% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 952 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 12 | 690 | 20% | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 1514 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | AM | 9 | 262 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1424 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | AC Monza | Serie A | AM | 20 | 1315 | 38% | 3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 1516 | 1274 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | AM | 10 | 251 | 7% | 3 | 0 | 1.08 | 0.37 | 1447 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Monza | Serie A | AM | 11 | 326 | 10% | 4 | 1 | 1.38 | 0.68 | 1480 | 1428 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | FC Empoli | Serie A | LW | 7 | 262 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1451 | 1388 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | AM | 18 | 620 | 18% | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.52 | 1503 | 1310 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | AC Milan | Serie A | AM | 8 | 144 | 4% | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.25 | 1360 | 1683 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | AC Milan | Serie A | AM | 5 | 25 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1491 | 1639 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | AC Milan | Serie A | RW | 2 | 26 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1366 | 1590 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 137 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 69 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1843 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Monza | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 2 | 30 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1702 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Milan | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1424 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Waldschmidt Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ermedin Demirovic Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €6.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Victor Moses Premier League · 2016 | 26 | €7.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Khouma Babacar Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Rachid Ghezzal Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Rafa Mir Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €10.0M | €800k | fell |
| Felipe Caicedo Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Luka Jović Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €9.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Lazio | Atalanta | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Atalanta | Lazio | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Monza | Atalanta | €13.0M | €6.0M |
| 31 Jul 2024 | AC Milan | Monza | €6.5M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Monza | AC Milan | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 10 Jan 2024 | AC Milan | Monza | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 9 Jan 2024 | FC Empoli | AC Milan | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 10 Jul 2023 | AC Milan | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Spezia Calcio | AC Milan | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 29 Jul 2022 | AC Milan | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Milan U19 | AC Milan | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Milan U17 | Milan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.