Kristian Bilovar

25 yrs · Centre-back · Ukraine
Dynamo Kyiv · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€629k – €2.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€822k – €3.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€605k – €2.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.2M – €3.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€629k – €2.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€822k – €3.7M
Projected value (24 months)€605k – €2.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Kristian Bilovar's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 61

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage38.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.2M vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationLow-10% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1355 (50% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.02
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1324
Opponent strength
1163
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€605k – €2.1M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-82 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -37% to -8%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1355 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB18135550%000.000.02116313240.25
2024/25Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB17106940%000.000.02117314060.28
2023/24Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB637714%000.000.03122914580.34
2021/22Chornomorets OdesaPremier LigaCB972245%000.000.06131111560.45
2021/22Desna ChernigivPremier LigaCB130%000.000.06119012980.45

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv2152001521
2025/26Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv215000—
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv2115001324
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv7611001547
2024/25Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv28900—
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv344001483
2023/24Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv16300—
2021/22Ukrainian CupChornomorets Odesa218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Stratos Svarnas
Super League 1 · 2021
24€1.5M€2.0Mrose
Adil Demirbağ
Super Lig · 2022
25€2.3M€1.8Mfell
Nathaniel Atkinson
Scottish Premiership · 2024
25€800k€700kflat
Jean-Claude Billong
Super Lig · 2021
28€900k€250kfell
Hjörtur Hermannsson
Superliga · 2020
25€650k€700kflat
Andy Considine
Scottish Premiership · 2014
27€850k€600kfell
Khadim Rassoul
Super Lig · 2022
26€1.1M€500kfell
Joan Sastre
Super League 1 · 2023
26€1.5M€1.3Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2023AEL LimassolDynamo KyivFree / loan€300k
31 Aug 2022Dynamo KyivAEL LimassolFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2022ChornomoretsDynamo KyivFree / loan€200k
3 Sept 2021Dynamo KyivChornomoretsFree / loan€100k
2 Sept 2021DesnaDynamo KyivFree / loan€50k
23 Jul 2021Dynamo KyivDesnaFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2021Dynamo Kyiv IIDynamo KyivUnknown€50k
1 Jan 2019Dynamo Kyiv U19Dynamo Kyiv IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Dynamo Kyiv U17Dynamo Kyiv U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.