
Kristian Bilovar
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kristian Bilovar's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1355 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1324
- Opponent strength
- 1163
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €605k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-82 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -37% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1355 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | CB | 18 | 1355 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1163 | 1324 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | CB | 17 | 1069 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1173 | 1406 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | CB | 6 | 377 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1229 | 1458 | 0.34 |
| 2021/22 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | CB | 9 | 722 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1311 | 1156 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | Desna Chernigiv | Premier Liga | CB | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1190 | 1298 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 1521 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 115 | 0 | 0 | 1324 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 611 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 89 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1483 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | Chornomorets Odesa | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratos Svarnas Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Adil Demirbağ Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €2.3M | €1.8M | fell |
| Nathaniel Atkinson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Jean-Claude Billong Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €900k | €250k | fell |
| Hjörtur Hermannsson Superliga · 2020 | 25 | €650k | €700k | flat |
| Andy Considine Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 27 | €850k | €600k | fell |
| Khadim Rassoul Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €500k | fell |
| Joan Sastre Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | AEL Limassol | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Dynamo Kyiv | AEL Limassol | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Chornomorets | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €200k |
| 3 Sept 2021 | Dynamo Kyiv | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €100k |
| 2 Sept 2021 | Desna | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €50k |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Dynamo Kyiv | Desna | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Dynamo Kyiv | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dynamo Kyiv U17 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.