Oleg Gorin

26 yrs · Centre-back (also DM) · Ukraine
LNZ Cherkasy · Premier Liga · Foot: both · Height: 188 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.2M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€395k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€515k – €1.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€521k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€615k – €811k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€395k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€515k – €1.2M
Projected value (24 months)€521k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Oleg Gorin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 93

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average24.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €527k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationLow-14% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.2M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2158 (80% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
25 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1242
Opponent strength
1177
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€521k – €1.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 57 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -16% to +115%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26LNZ CherkasyPremier LigaCB25215880%120.130.10117712420.25
2024/25Rukh LvivPremier LigaCB960722%100.150.08117611990.28
2023/24SC Dnipro-1Premier LigaDM41706%000.000.06111113350.34
2022/23FC MinajPremier LigaCB21168662%010.050.08129611750.38
2021/22FC MinajPremier LigaCB13100062%200.180.21132910970.45

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupLNZ Cherkasy327000—
2024/25Ukrainian CupRukh Lviv13400—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingSC Dnipro-129001462
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingSC Dnipro-117001414

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ahmet Calik
Super Lig · 2021
27€650k€1.4Mrose
Sergiy Chobotenko
Premier Liga · 2023
26€600k€1.0Mrose
Stefan Gartenmann
Scottish Premiership · 2024
27€700k€1.5Mrose
Wajdi Kechrida
Super League 1 · 2023
28€800k€700kflat
Enzo Roco
Super Lig · 2021
29€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Andriy Ponedelnik
Premier Liga · 2024
27€900k€800kflat
Liam Scales
Scottish Premiership · 2023
25€650k€4.0Mrose
Danylo Beskorovaynyi
Premier Liga · 2024
25€900k€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
23 Jul 2025Rukh LvivLNZ CherkasyFree / loan€300k
21 Jan 2025Without ClubRukh LvivUnknown€200k
19 Jul 2024SC Dnipro-1Without ClubUnknown€250k
1 Jul 2023FC MinajSC Dnipro-1Free / loan€400k
27 Jul 2021KarvinaFC MinajFree / loan€50k
5 Feb 2021Without ClubKarvinaUnknown€50k
9 Jul 2020JagielloniaWithout ClubUnknown€50k
11 Jul 2019PFC Lviv IIJagielloniaFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Veres U19PFC Lviv IIFree / loanData unavailable
2 Aug 2017PFC Lviv U19Veres U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2017PFC Lviv U17PFC Lviv U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.