Jay Idzes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jay Idzes's performance-implied value at EUR 3.9M-15.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.6M-19.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.3M-18.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €14.0M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3064 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.3M – €18.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+113 Elo); relative output down 66% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -50% to +46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | CB | 35 | 3064 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1509 | 1405 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Venezia FC | Serie A | CB | 35 | 3128 | 91% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1504 | 1293 | 0.99 |
| 2022/23 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2855 | 93% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1350 | 1246 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | CB | 21 | 1519 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1376 | 1188 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Venezia FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 315 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Astori Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Martin Hinteregger Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €10.0M | €14.5M | rose |
| Marco Friedl Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Christophe Hérelle Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €9.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Xandão Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Carlos Zambrano Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €8.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Diogo Leite Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Martin Valjent Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2025 | Venezia | Sassuolo | €8.1M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Go Ahead Eagles | Venezia | Free / loan | €750k |
| 20 Jul 2020 | FC Eindhoven | Go Ahead Eagles | Unknown | €350k |
| 21 Aug 2018 | Eindhoven U19 | FC Eindhoven | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Eindhoven U17 | Eindhoven U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | VVV-Venlo U17 | Eindhoven U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | VVV/Helm. Youth | VVV/Hel U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | PSV Yth. | VVV/Helm. Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Mifano Jeugd | PSV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.