Marco Friedl
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marco Friedl's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-9.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.7M-11.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-9.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.1M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2549 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €9.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-104 Elo); relative output up 79% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -64% to +70%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2549 | 83% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1484 | 1378 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2164 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1474 | 1483 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 2198 | 72% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1547 | 1459 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2597 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1532 | 1393 | 1.04 |
| 2020/21 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2786 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1531 | 1384 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LB | 27 | 2185 | 71% | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 1549 | 1428 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 7 | 472 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1561 | 1564 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LB | 9 | 597 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1488 | 1510 | 1.04 |
| 2017/18 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LB | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1566 | 1863 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 3 | 225 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1520 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartosz Bereszyński Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €6.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Samir Caetano Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Jeff Chabot Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €9.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Kamil Glik Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €10.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Nacho Vidal Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Timo Hübers Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €5.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Diego Carlos Ligue 1 · 2019 | 26 | €13.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Fabian Lustenberger Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €4.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bayern Munich | Werder Bremen | €3.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Werder Bremen | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 25 Jan 2018 | Bayern Munich | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Bayern U19 | Bayern Munich | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Bayern U17 | FC Bayern U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | B. München Yth. | FC Bayern U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jul 2008 | Kufstein Yth. | B. München Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2007 | Kirchbichl Yth. | Kufstein Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.