Diogo Leite
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diogo Leite's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-9.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.1M-16.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-11.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.3M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1970 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1392
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.3M – €11.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; relative output down 82% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -37% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 1970 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1477 | 1392 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2548 | 83% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1504 | 1394 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2707 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1513 | 1431 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2253 | 74% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1517 | 1587 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 23 | 1854 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1326 | 1514 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 19 | 1165 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1284 | 1680 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 9 | 375 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1355 | 1609 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 3 | 270 | 9% | 1 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.10 | 1329 | 1685 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1680 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 6 | 533 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 3 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 1689 |
| 2020/21 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1605 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2018/19 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1279 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaka Bijol Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Davide Astori Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Nicola Murru Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €5.2M | €2.0M | fell |
| Martin Erlić Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Brendan Chardonnet Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Alexander Djiku Ligue 1 · 2021 | 27 | €6.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Niklas Stark Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €5.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Serdar Tasci Bundesliga · 2013 | 26 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Union Berlin | Without Club | Unknown | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Porto | Union Berlin | €7.0M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Union Berlin | Porto | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 16 Jul 2022 | Porto | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Braga | Porto | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Porto | Braga | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Porto B | Porto | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Porto U19 | FC Porto B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Porto U17 | FC Porto U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Padroense U17 | FC Porto U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Porto U15 | Padroense U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Porto Youth | FC Porto U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Leixões Yth | FC Porto Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.