Germán Valera
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Germán Valera's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-9.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-7.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-10.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (2871 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2871 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €10.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -16% to +57%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | LW | 36 | 2871 | 84% | 4 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 1498 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RW | 8 | 142 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1460 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2019/20 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RW | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1512 | 1759 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 215 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Mounié Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €5.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Lucca Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Florian Niederlechner Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €5.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Moses Simon Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Rogelio Funes Mori Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €4.3M | €5.0M | flat |
| Jonathan Calleri Laliga · 2018 | 25 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Fraizer Campbell Premier League · 2014 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Andrea Pinamonti Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | Valencia | Elche CF | €100k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Elche CF | Valencia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Valencia | Elche CF | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Atlético | Valencia | €25k | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Real Zaragoza | Atlético | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 8 Aug 2023 | Atlético | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Atl. Madrileño | Atlético | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Andorra | Atl. Madrileño | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 25 Aug 2022 | Atl. Madrileño | FC Andorra | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Real Sociedad B | Atl. Madrileño | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 11 Aug 2021 | Atl. Madrileño | Real Sociedad B | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | CD Tenerife | Atl. Madrileño | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Atl. Madrileño | CD Tenerife | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Atl. Madrileño | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Atlético Yth. | Atl. Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Villarreal Yth. | Atlético Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.