Rodrigo Pinheiro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodrigo Pinheiro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-4.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-5.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-9.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2572 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1333
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €9.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; team strength up (+73 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -41% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | RB | 29 | 2572 | 84% | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1333 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | RB | 29 | 1991 | 65% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1322 | 1333 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Castro-Montes Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €5.0M | €3.8M | fell |
| Daniil Khlusevich Premier Liga · 2023 | 22 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Joseph Okumu Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Samuel Gigot Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 24 | €3.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Uğur Çiftçi Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €2.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Antonio Milic Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €3.0M | €650k | fell |
| Ridgeciano Haps Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Josué Sá Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Porto B | Famalicão | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Porto U17 | FC Porto B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Vitória SC U15 | FC Porto U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Vitória SC Yth | Vitória SC U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.