Matteo Cancellieri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matteo Cancellieri's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-13.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-12.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1731 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.3M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1731 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €12.5M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+180 Elo); relative output down 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -34% to +131%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1731 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RW | 30 | 1731 | 51% | 4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 1464 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | RW | 27 | 1430 | 42% | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.49 | 1509 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Empoli | Serie A | SS | 36 | 1784 | 52% | 4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.61 | 1472 | 1388 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RW | 20 | 237 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1476 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | RW | 12 | 218 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 1556 | 1441 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 109 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 6 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 1472 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 2 | 168 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evann Guessand Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €8.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Felipe Caicedo Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jakob Jantscher Premier Liga · 2013 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.3M | fell |
| Cristian Tello Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Gerard Deulofeu Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Omar Marmoush Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €6.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Maxwel Cornet Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €10.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Maicón Premier Liga · 2013 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Parma | Lazio | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 14 Aug 2024 | Lazio | Parma | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Empoli | Lazio | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 16 Aug 2023 | Lazio | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Hellas Verona | Lazio | €8.5M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Lazio | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hellas Verona | Lazio | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Roma U19 | Hellas Verona | €4.0M | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Verona U19 | Roma U19 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 17 Sept 2020 | Roma U18 | Verona U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Roma U17 | Roma U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AS Rom Youth | Roma U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.