Gonçalo Ramos

25 yrs · Striker (also SS) · Portugal
Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2031
Market value
€30.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€22.8M – €42.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€16.0M – €35.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€15.7M – €45.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€26.8M – €12.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€22.8M – €42.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€16.0M – €35.5M
Projected value (24 months)€15.7M – €45.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€30.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Gonçalo Ramos's performance-implied value at EUR 16.0M-35.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.8M-42.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.7M-45.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.42x the positional average in the league (1309 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 17

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh85.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €31.0M vs market €30.0M
Expected appreciationLow-24% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €50.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1309 (43% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.48
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
86 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1818
Opponent strength
1435
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€15.7M – €45.8M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 40% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -53% to +2%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1309 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1ST30130943%610.480.21143518170.88
2024/25Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1ST22106335%1031.100.37139118120.88
2023/24Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1ST29142046%1120.820.42145517000.87
2022/23SL BenficaLiga PortugalST30230675%1971.010.47138017180.68
2021/22SL BenficaLiga PortugalSS29156551%720.520.41136216560.67
2020/21SL BenficaLiga PortugalST4933%201.940.37127116190.61
2019/20SL BenficaLiga PortugalST130%2060.000.33117515830.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain10171201685
2025/26Uefa Super CupParis Saint-Germain113101564
2025/26World CupPortugal1700—
2025/26Trophee Des ChampionsParis Saint-Germain11101580
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain12205311642
2024/25Trophee Des ChampionsParis Saint-Germain118001584
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain7211001701
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica10719331610
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica4239421477
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica7370101833
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica4166001482
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica231001594

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Federico Bernardeschi
Serie A · 2019
25€45.0M€15.0Mfell
Hirving Lozano
Serie A · 2023
28€25.0M€10.0Mfell
Patrik Schick
Serie A · 2018
22€20.0M€20.0Mflat
Danny Welbeck
Premier League · 2013
23€17.0M€17.0Mflat
Kingsley Coman
Bundesliga · 2020
24€40.0M€60.0Mrose
Mauro Icardi
Ligue 1 · 2022
29€22.0M€17.0Mfell
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Premier League · 2015
22€20.0M€22.0Mflat
Adrián López
Laliga · 2013
25€10.0M€5.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jan 2024BenficaPSG€65.0M€50.0M
31 Dec 2023PSGBenficaFree / loan€50.0M
7 Aug 2023BenficaPSGFree / loan€50.0M
1 Oct 2020Benfica BBenficaUnknown€675k
1 Jul 2019Benfica U19Benfica BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Benfica U17Benfica U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Benfica U15Benfica U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Benfica YthBenfica U15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013UnknownBenfica YthUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Olhanense CJUnknownFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.