
Gonçalo Ramos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gonçalo Ramos's performance-implied value at EUR 16.0M-35.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.8M-42.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.7M-45.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.42x the positional average in the league (1309 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €31.0M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1309 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1435
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.7M – €45.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -53% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1309 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 30 | 1309 | 43% | 6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.21 | 1435 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 22 | 1063 | 35% | 10 | 3 | 1.10 | 0.37 | 1391 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 29 | 1420 | 46% | 11 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.42 | 1455 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | ST | 30 | 2306 | 75% | 19 | 7 | 1.01 | 0.47 | 1380 | 1718 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | SS | 29 | 1565 | 51% | 7 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 1362 | 1656 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | ST | 4 | 93 | 3% | 2 | 0 | 1.94 | 0.37 | 1271 | 1619 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | ST | 1 | 3 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 60.00 | 0.33 | 1175 | 1583 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 10 | 171 | 2 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 12 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 1642 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 211 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 10 | 719 | 3 | 3 | 1610 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 239 | 4 | 2 | 1477 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 7 | 370 | 1 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 166 | 0 | 0 | 1482 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bernardeschi Serie A · 2019 | 25 | €45.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Hirving Lozano Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Patrik Schick Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Danny Welbeck Premier League · 2013 | 23 | €17.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Kingsley Coman Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €40.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Mauro Icardi Ligue 1 · 2022 | 29 | €22.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Premier League · 2015 | 22 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Adrián López Laliga · 2013 | 25 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2024 | Benfica | PSG | €65.0M | €50.0M |
| 31 Dec 2023 | PSG | Benfica | Free / loan | €50.0M |
| 7 Aug 2023 | Benfica | PSG | Free / loan | €50.0M |
| 1 Oct 2020 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | €675k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Unknown | Benfica Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Olhanense CJ | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.