Sékou Mara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sékou Mara's performance-implied value at EUR 4.8M-15.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-5.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1229 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.9M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1229 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1402
- Opponent strength
- 1462
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €5.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; changed club; team strength down (-104 Elo); relative output up 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -55% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1229 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | ST | 27 | 1229 | 40% | 3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.49 | 1462 | 1402 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 25 | 759 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 1426 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | Southampton FC | Premier League | ST | 22 | 542 | 16% | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 1544 | 1375 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | ST | 26 | 896 | 26% | 6 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 1393 | 1312 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | ST | 8 | 225 | 7% | 1 | 2 | 1.20 | 0.72 | 1409 | 1349 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 3 | 182 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahima Koné Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Giannis Fetfatzidis Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €3.8M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ignatius Ganago Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Serhou Guirassy Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €3.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Alberto Paloschi Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Umut Bozok Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Roberto Piccoli Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Pavel Yakovlev Premier Liga · 2014 | 23 | €3.5M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | AJ Auxerre | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 5 Sept 2025 | R. Strasbourg | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Southampton | R. Strasbourg | €12.0M | €6.0M |
| 25 Jul 2022 | G. Bordeaux | Southampton | €11.5M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | G. Bordeaux B | G. Bordeaux | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bordeaux U17 | G. Bordeaux B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Bordeaux Yth. | Bordeaux U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | ACBB Youth | Bordeaux Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | PSG Youth | ACBB Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.