Rio Hillen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rio Hillen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €526k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2005 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1118
- Opponent strength
- 1337
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €408k – €926k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +16% (IQR -31% to +127%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | CB | 26 | 2005 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1337 | 1118 | 0.43 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tchamba Superliga · 2022 | 24 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Rasmus Lauritsen Superliga · 2019 | 23 | €600k | €6.5M | rose |
| Oleg Gorin Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| George Harmon Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 23 | €300k | €325k | flat |
| Théo Barbet Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Stavro Pilo Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €500k | €1.2M | rose |
| Joey Jacobs Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €650k | €350k | fell |
| Teenage Hadebe Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €675k | €1.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | De Graafschap | NAC Breda | €300k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ajax U21 | De Graafschap | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ajax U18 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AZ U17 | Ajax U17 | €70k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | AZ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AFC Youth | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.