Leo Román
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leo Román's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-6.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-8.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-10.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.4M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2970 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €10.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 68 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -53% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1500 | 1421 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | GK | 7 | 630 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1597 | 1415 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1432 | 1430 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1510 | 1378 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Dahmen Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Marco Sportiello Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Bartłomiej Drągowski Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Lukasz Skorupski Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €2.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Costel Pantilimon Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Oliver Christensen Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Luís Maximiano Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €5.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Felix Wiedwald Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Real Oviedo | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | RCD Mallorca | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | RCD Mallorca B | RCD Mallorca | Unknown | €300k |
| 5 Aug 2020 | Penya Deportiva | RCD Mallorca B | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Sant Rafel | Penya Deportiva | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Penya Deportiva | Sant Rafel | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Penya Dep. U19 | Penya Deportiva | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.