Bartłomiej Drągowski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bartłomiej Drągowski's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 54.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 540 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 13)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1465
- Opponent strength
- 1270
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €598k – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 64 pts; team strength up (+64 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -50% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 540 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–179%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | GK | 6 | 540 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1270 | 1465 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | GK | 23 | 2049 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1247 | 1402 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | GK | 5 | 450 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1319 | 1453 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | GK | 34 | 2948 | 86% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1474 | 1310 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | GK | 7 | 557 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1553 | 1470 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | GK | 36 | 3149 | 92% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1457 | 1422 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | GK | 31 | 2790 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1436 | 1436 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Empoli | Serie A | GK | 14 | 1260 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1480 | 1304 | 0.78 |
| 2018/19 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | GK | 3 | 225 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1516 | 1384 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | GK | 3 | 216 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1509 | 1491 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1197 | 1523 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1460 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1445 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mykyta Shevchenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Alexandros Paschalakis Super League 1 · 2020 | 31 | €1.6M | €800k | fell |
| Piet Velthuizen Eredivisie · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Georgios Athanasiadis Super League 1 · 2024 | 31 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Sten Grytebust Superliga · 2020 | 31 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Andreas Gianniotis Super League 1 · 2019 | 27 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Robbin Ruiter Eredivisie · 2017 | 30 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Renan Ribeiro Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2026 | Panathinaikos | Widzew Lodz | €300k | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Spezia Calcio | Panathinaikos | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Panathinaikos | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Spezia Calcio | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 10 Aug 2022 | Fiorentina | Spezia Calcio | €2.5M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | FC Empoli | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 22 Jan 2019 | Fiorentina | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 4 Jul 2016 | Jagiellonia | Fiorentina | €2.5M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Jagiellonia II | Jagiellonia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Jagiellonia U19 | Jagiellonia II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.