Kristian Thorstvedt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kristian Thorstvedt's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-10.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.7M-10.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.4M-15.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.47x the positional average in the league (2458 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €6.2M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2458 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.4M – €15.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -41% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | CM | 32 | 2458 | 72% | 4 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 1492 | 1405 | 0.93 |
| 2023/24 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | AM | 34 | 2412 | 71% | 6 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 1472 | 1330 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | CM | 31 | 1128 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 1462 | 1420 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 29 | 2134 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 1356 | 1356 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 24 | 1528 | 50% | 3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.24 | 1346 | 1414 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 8 | 441 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.31 | 1433 | 1429 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 2 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 6 | 437 | 0 | 0 | 1575 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall Munetsi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Luca Cigarini Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Adrien Tamèze Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Aleix García Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Bruno Peres Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Fredy Guarín Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Stéphane Mbia Premier League · 2013 | 27 | €10.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Antonín Barák Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €20.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2022 | Genk | Sassuolo | €10.2M | €5.0M |
| 3 Jan 2020 | Viking FK | Genk | €1.5M | €1.0M |
| 1 Feb 2018 | Stabæk II | Viking FK | €10k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Viking FK Youth | Stabæk II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.