Kazeem Olaigbe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kazeem Olaigbe's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-5.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.56x the positional average in the league (2044 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2044 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1304
- Opponent strength
- 1259
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €5.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; changed club; team strength down (-79 Elo); league level down (-128 Elo); relative output down 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -43% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | LW | 18 | 1093 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 1259 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | LW | 13 | 951 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1302 | 1230 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 19 | 906 | 34% | 3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 1343 | 1361 | 0.63 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LW | 10 | 295 | 10% | 0 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.38 | 1390 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 20 | 596 | 22% | 3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 1392 | 1394 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 19 | 731 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1310 | 1137 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 4 | 241 | 1 | 0 | 1336 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 1 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1366 |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Ross County FC | 1 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Vital Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Jackson Muleka Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Andreas Cornelius Superliga · 2015 | 22 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Mateo García Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Gil Dias Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ibrahima Conté Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| João Batxi Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €3.2M | €8.0M | rose |
| Martin Minchev Super Lig · 2024 | 23 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Trabzonspor | Konyaspor | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Konyaspor | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 4 Feb 2026 | Trabzonspor | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Stade Rennais | Trabzonspor | €5.0M | €5.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Cercle Brugge | Stade Rennais | €5.3M | €1.8M |
| 29 Aug 2023 | Southampton U21 | Cercle Brugge | Unknown | €400k |
| 31 May 2023 | Harrogate Town | Southampton U21 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Southampton U21 | Harrogate Town | Free / loan | €225k |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Ross County | Southampton U21 | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Southampton U21 | Ross County | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Southampton U18 | Southampt. U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jul 2019 | Anderlecht Yth. | Southampton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.