Nelson Abbey
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nelson Abbey's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.5M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 16% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2091 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 16%
- Resale range (24m)
- €852k – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts; relative output up 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -39% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 26 | 2091 | 68% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1326 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 8 | 635 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1325 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 1 | 90 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1130 | 1490 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Reading FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimitrios Goutas Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 23 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Théo Ndicka Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Philipe Sampaio Liga Portugal · 2017 | 23 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Arsen Adamov Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Dario Van den Buijs Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Artem Shabanov Premier Liga · 2015 | 23 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Stelios Kitsiou Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 25 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Wilfried Kanon Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Olympiacos | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Rio Ave | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €700k |
| 7 Jan 2025 | Olympiacos | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €500k |
| 3 Jan 2025 | Swansea | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €500k |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Olympiacos | Swansea | Free / loan | €500k |
| 25 Jan 2024 | Reading | Olympiacos | €400k | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Reading U21 | Reading | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Reading U18 | Reading U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Reading Yth. | Reading U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.