Michael Olise
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Michael Olise's performance-implied value at EUR 62.7M-137.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 112.7M-213.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 83.9M-157.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.29x the positional average in the league (2320 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €163M vs market €150M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2320 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €83.9M – €157M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+99 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +17% (IQR +0% to +51%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RW | 32 | 2320 | 76% | 15 | 21 | 1.40 | 0.51 | 1464 | 1871 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RW | 34 | 2347 | 77% | 12 | 18 | 1.15 | 0.51 | 1493 | 1772 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RW | 19 | 1278 | 37% | 10 | 6 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 1589 | 1562 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RW | 37 | 2756 | 81% | 2 | 11 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 1551 | 1536 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RW | 26 | 1135 | 33% | 2 | 5 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 1559 | 1537 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 13 | 1082 | 5 | 7 | 1722 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 5 | 433 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 3 | 223 | 0 | 4 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 14 | 1032 | 5 | 2 | 1641 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 103 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 5 | 369 | 2 | 3 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Sterling Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €90.0M | €128M | rose |
| Vinicius Junior Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €100M | €180M | rose |
| Neymar Laliga · 2016 | 24 | €100M | €180M | rose |
| Philippe Coutinho Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €100M | €56.0M | fell |
| Lionel Messi Laliga · 2014 | 27 | €120M | €120M | flat |
| Kylian Mbappé Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €180M | €180M | flat |
| Thomas Müller Bundesliga · 2013 | 24 | €45.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Marco Reus Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €40.0M | €45.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2024 | Crystal Palace | Bayern Munich | €53.0M | €55.0M |
| 8 Jul 2021 | Reading | Crystal Palace | €9.3M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Reading U18 | Reading | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Man City Youth | Reading U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Chelsea Youth | Man City Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Arsenal Youth | Chelsea Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.