Vinicius Junior

The model rates Vinicius Junior's performance-implied value at EUR 52.2M-117.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 55.8M-132.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 62.2M-129.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (2825 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2825 (83% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.70

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.38

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

99 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.95 (rank 2)

Team strength (Elo)

1745

Opponent strength

1481

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Moderate

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€62.2M – €129M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -36% to +5%).

• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.