Kylian Mbappé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kylian Mbappé's performance-implied value at EUR 53.4M-167.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 133.2M-225.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 73.5M-142.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (2606 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €165M vs market €180M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2606 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1460
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €73.5M – €143M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -36% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 31 | 2606 | 76% | 25 | 5 | 1.04 | 0.47 | 1460 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 34 | 2917 | 85% | 31 | 3 | 1.05 | 0.48 | 1492 | 1764 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 29 | 2159 | 71% | 27 | 7 | 1.42 | 0.71 | 1470 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 34 | 2822 | 83% | 29 | 6 | 1.12 | 0.52 | 1429 | 1672 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 35 | 3032 | 89% | 28 | 19 | 1.40 | 0.65 | 1403 | 1714 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 31 | 2387 | 70% | 27 | 7 | 1.28 | 0.51 | 1409 | 1727 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 20 | 1515 | 62% | 18 | 7 | 1.49 | 0.60 | 1431 | 1779 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 29 | 2329 | 68% | 33 | 9 | 1.62 | 0.67 | 1442 | 1714 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RW | 27 | 2096 | 61% | 13 | 7 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 1447 | 1774 | 0.85 |
| 2017/18 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 1 | 75 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1403 | 1620 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 29 | 1501 | 44% | 15 | 11 | 1.56 | 0.73 | 1397 | 1727 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RW | 11 | 289 | 8% | 1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.48 | 1527 | 1522 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 911 | 15 | 1 | 1640 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 3 | 267 | 4 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1805 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 14 | 1133 | 7 | 1 | 1699 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 4 | 234 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Real Madrid | 1 | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1709 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 12 | 1080 | 8 | 0 | 1686 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 652 | 7 | 3 | 1661 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 674 | 6 | 6 | 1720 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 10 | 900 | 8 | 3 | 1724 |
| 2020/21 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 10 | 652 | 5 | 6 | 1685 |
| 2019/20 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 701 | 4 | 5 | 1692 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 658 | 4 | 3 | 1735 |
| 2017/18 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1757 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 9 | 536 | 6 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 1 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1628 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romelu Lukaku Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €100M | €40.0M | fell |
| Lautaro Martínez Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €110M | €85.0M | fell |
| Antoine Griezmann Laliga · 2018 | 27 | €100M | €96.0M | flat |
| Marcus Thuram Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €65.0M | €50.0M | fell |
| Roberto Firmino Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €80.0M | €72.0M | flat |
| Sadio Mané Premier League · 2020 | 28 | €120M | €70.0M | fell |
| Edinson Cavani Ligue 1 · 2014 | 27 | €60.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Robert Lewandowski Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €75.0M | €90.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | PSG | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €180M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Monaco | PSG | €180M | €120M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | PSG | Monaco | Free / loan | €120M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Monaco | PSG | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Monaco U19 | Monaco | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Monaco Youth | Monaco U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Clairef. Yth. | Monaco Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2011 | AS Bondy Yth. | Clairef. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.