Josh Doig
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Josh Doig's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-7.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.2M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1919 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1510
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €7.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -20% to +64%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | LB | 30 | 1919 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1510 | 1405 | 0.93 |
| 2023/24 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | LB | 16 | 1347 | 39% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 1463 | 1330 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | LM | 12 | 838 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1479 | 1381 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | LM | 22 | 1354 | 40% | 2 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 1452 | 1357 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 29 | 2302 | 78% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1325 | 1283 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 24 | 1762 | 59% | 1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.19 | 1326 | 1373 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 3 | 219 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1364 |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 5 | 433 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Santos Bundesliga · 2017 | 23 | €5.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Giuseppe Bellusci Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Chris Gunter Premier League · 2013 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Erhan Masovic Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Andreaw Gravillon Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €6.5M | €3.7M | fell |
| Marlon Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Cédric Zesiger Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2024 | Hellas Verona | Sassuolo | €6.8M | €7.0M |
| 13 Jul 2022 | Hibernian FC | Hellas Verona | €3.4M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Hibernian B | Hibernian FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2020 | Queen's Park | Hibernian B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Hibernian B | Queen's Park | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hearts FC U18 | Hibernian B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hearts Youth | Hearts FC U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.